What is a player prop?

A player prop is a bet on one player's stat in one game. Instead of picking who wins, you pick whether a player goes over or under a number, called the line.

Why the lines end in .5

A half point means there's no tie: a player can't throw 247.5 yards, so every bet is either a win or a loss. When a line is a whole number and the player lands exactly on it, that's a push and the bet is returned.

How prices work on prediction markets

On Polymarket and Kalshi, each prop is a yes-or-no contract priced from 1¢ to 99¢. If you're right, it pays $1. So the price is roughly the market's guess at the chance it happens:

• A price of 60¢ means the market thinks it's about 60% likely.
• Your payout is $1 divided by the price: at 60¢ you get back 1.67× what you put in (the 60¢ plus 40¢ profit).
• A cheap price pays more but hits less often. A 90¢ "sure thing" only pays 1.11×.

Where Prop Streak Lab comes in

For every prop, the site works out its own chance from the player's game logs and puts it next to the price. When the model's chance is well above the price, the bet may be worth more than it costs. The boards show two lists:

• Value spots: priced 30¢ or more, with the model at least 15 points higher.
• Top 25 Surest: the props the model is surest about. They hit most often and pay the least.

Every pick is recorded before the game and graded in public, wins and losses, so you can check how it's done.