Every prop on the boards comes with a few numbers. Here's what each one means and how to use it.
The chance the prop hits, worked out from the player's recent game logs and adjusted for the matchup. It's calibrated: picks the model puts at 70% have hit about 70% of the time, and the home page shows that check for every confidence level.
The model's 80% range, for example 61–80%. A wide range means fewer games to go on, so treat that chance with more caution.
The price is the cheaper of Polymarket and Kalshi, from 1¢ to 99¢. Your payout is $1 divided by the price: 50¢ pays 2×.
A blend of the model and the market. On the graded record the market has predicted better than the model, since prices react to news a game log can't see, so the fair chance leans mostly on the market. If the fair chance is above the price, the bet is worth more than it costs.
A pick locks when its game starts within 30 minutes: from then on its chance, price and list status are frozen. After the game it's graded from the box score as a hit, a miss or a push. A player who doesn't play is left out of the record. Profit is counted at the recorded price, 1 unit per pick.
For the full details, see how the model works.