Sat, Oct 31 · from every upcoming NFL game · updated Oct 31, 5:18 AM ET
The model rates these well above a price of 30¢ or more: the best bets for the money.
| Player | Prop | Game | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | under 274.5 Pass Yds | MIN @ DET | 79% | 61¢ |
| Jahan Dotson | under 2.5 Receptions | ATL @ TB | 82% | 64¢ |
| Malik Willis | under 15.5 Completions | NE @ MIA | 74% | 56¢ |
| Tyler Allgeier | over 19.5 Rush Yds | ARI @ DAL | 62% | 44¢ |
| Jonathan Taylor | under 3.5 Receptions | IND @ JAX | 91% | 73¢ |
| Justin Jefferson | under 4.5 Receptions | MIN @ DET | 49% | 31¢ |
| Jared Goff | under 1.5 Pass TDs | MIN @ DET | 64% | 47¢ |
| Elic Ayomanor | under 29.5 Rec Yds | TEN @ CIN | 64% | 47¢ |
| Jerry Jeudy | over 2.5 Receptions | CLE @ PIT | 57% | 40¢ |
| Laquon Treadwell | under 1.5 Receptions | IND @ JAX | 56% | 39¢ |
| Kyler Murray | over 35.5 Pass Att | MIN @ DET | 53% | 36¢ |
| Dak Prescott | over 274.5 Pass Yds | ARI @ DAL | 62% | 45¢ |
| Justin Jefferson | under 69.5 Rec Yds | MIN @ DET | 62% | 45¢ |
| Darius Cooper | under 19.5 Rec Yds | PHI @ WAS | 59% | 42¢ |
| Trey McBride | over 7.5 Receptions | ARI @ DAL | 69% | 52¢ |
| Laquon Treadwell | under 19.5 Rec Yds | IND @ JAX | 59% | 43¢ |
| Trevor Lawrence | over 249.5 Pass Yds | IND @ JAX | 60% | 44¢ |
| Makai Lemon | under 4.5 Receptions | PHI @ WAS | 65% | 49¢ |
| Mark Andrews | under 39.5 Rec Yds | BAL @ BUF | 83% | 67¢ |
| Kendrick Bourne | under 29.5 Rec Yds | ARI @ DAL | 56% | 40¢ |
The props the model is surest about: smaller payouts, the highest hit rate.
| Player | Prop | Game | Model | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | under 89.5 Rush Yds | PHI @ WAS | 99% | 93¢ |
| Bo Nix | under 3.5 Pass TDs | KC @ DEN | 99% | 98¢ |
| Jared Goff | under 3.5 Pass TDs | MIN @ DET | 99% | 95¢ |
| Justin Herbert | under 3.5 Pass TDs | LAC @ LA | 98% | 98¢ |
| Caleb Williams | under 3.5 Pass TDs | CHI @ SEA | 98% | 97¢ |
| Aaron Rodgers | under 324.5 Pass Yds | CLE @ PIT | 98% | 95¢ |
| Malik Willis | under 2.5 Pass TDs | NE @ MIA | 98% | 96¢ |
| Jared Goff | under 374.5 Pass Yds | MIN @ DET | 98% | 95¢ |
| Cam Ward | under 2.5 Pass TDs | TEN @ CIN | 98% | 94¢ |
| Jeremy McNichols | under 49.5 Rush Yds | PHI @ WAS | 98% | 94¢ |
| Josh Allen | under 3.5 Pass TDs | BAL @ BUF | 97% | 94¢ |
| Patrick Mahomes | under 3.5 Pass TDs | KC @ DEN | 97% | 98¢ |
| Deshaun Watson | under 2.5 Pass TDs | CLE @ PIT | 97% | 93¢ |
| Kyren Williams | over 29.5 Rush Yds | LAC @ LA | 97% | 88¢ |
| Caleb Williams | under 324.5 Pass Yds | CHI @ SEA | 97% | 93¢ |
| Daniel Jones | under 2.5 Pass TDs | IND @ JAX | 96% | 95¢ |
| Baker Mayfield | under 3.5 Pass TDs | ATL @ TB | 96% | 96¢ |
| Malik Willis | under 79.5 Rush Yds | NE @ MIA | 96% | 96¢ |
| Sam LaPorta | under 89.5 Rec Yds | MIN @ DET | 96% | 91¢ |
| Jayden Daniels | under 3.5 Pass TDs | PHI @ WAS | 96% | 96¢ |
| Jahan Dotson | under 3.5 Receptions | ATL @ TB | 96% | 83¢ |
| Trevor Lawrence | over 149.5 Pass Yds | IND @ JAX | 96% | 91¢ |
| Matthew Stafford | under 3.5 Pass TDs | LAC @ LA | 95% | 93¢ |
| Lamar Jackson | under 59.5 Rush Yds | BAL @ BUF | 95% | 97¢ |
| Cam Ward | under 299.5 Pass Yds | TEN @ CIN | 94% | 95¢ |
Model: the chance the prop hits. Price: the cheaper of Polymarket and Kalshi at the last update. Every pick is recorded before the game and graded in public.