VGK · RW · NHL · next: NJ, Fri Oct 30, 6:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | under 0.5 | 80% | 74¢ | 75% | Fair |
| Assists | over 0.5 | 52% | 52¢ | 52% | Fair |
| Points | over 0.5 | 61% | 64¢ | 64% | Fair |
| Assists | under 1.5 | 86% | 91¢ | 90% | Skip |
| Points | under 1.5 | 72% | 80¢ | 79% | Skip |
| Shots on Goal | over 0.5 | 88% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Mitch Marner in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Points | Goals | Assists | Shots on Goal | Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | OTT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Oct 21 | TB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Oct 18 | PIT | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Oct 16 | CGY | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Oct 14 | NSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Oct 13 | MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Oct 11 | LA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Oct 9 | TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Oct 7 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Oct 5 | VAN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.