FLA · LW · NHL · next: WPG, Fri Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assists | under 0.5 | 55% | 46¢ | 47% | Fair |
| Goals | under 0.5 | 75% | 69¢ | 70% | Fair |
| Points | under 2.5 | 82% | 89¢ | 88% | Skip |
| Points | over 0.5 | 62% | 73¢ | 71% | Skip |
| Shots on Goal | over 0.5 | 91% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Matthew Tkachuk in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Points | Goals | Assists | Shots on Goal | Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | WPG | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Oct 25 | CHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Oct 22 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Oct 21 | OTT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Oct 17 | SEA | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Oct 15 | VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Oct 13 | CBJ | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Oct 12 | BUF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Oct 10 | MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| Oct 7 | LA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.