JAX · QB · NFL · next: IND, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completions | over 19.5 | 71% | 51¢ | 54% | Value |
| Pass Yds | over 249.5 | 60% | 46¢ | 48% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 1.5 | 64% | 63¢ | 63% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 324.5 | 76% | 90¢ | 88% | Skip |
| Pass TDs | under 2.5 | 55% | 71¢ | 69% | Skip |
| Pass Att | over 31.5 | 63% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 2026 | HOU | 306 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| Wk 5 2026 | PHI | 331 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| Wk 4 2026 | CIN | 227 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 3 2026 | NE | 182 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| Wk 2 2026 | DEN | 189 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Wk 1 2026 | CLE | 245 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Wk 19 2025 | BUF | 207 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Wk 18 2025 | TEN | 255 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| Wk 17 2025 | IND | 263 | 0 | 1 | 26 |
| Wk 16 2025 | DEN | 279 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.