KC · QB · NFL · next: DEN, Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | over 224.5 | 53% | 51¢ | 51% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 62% | 63¢ | 63% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 249.5 | 62% | 68¢ | 67% | Skip |
| Pass Att | over 27.5 | 71% | — | — | No price |
| Completions | under 21.5 | 60% | — | — | No price |
| Pass Att | under 31.5 | 55% | — | — | No price |
| Completions | over 19.5 | 52% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | SEA | 165 | 0 | 1 | 14 |
| Wk 6 2026 | LAC | 272 | 0 | 1 | 16 |
| Wk 4 2026 | LV | 225 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 3 2026 | MIA | 246 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Wk 2 2026 | IND | 382 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| Wk 1 2026 | DEN | 184 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| Wk 15 2025 | LAC | 189 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| Wk 14 2025 | HOU | 160 | 0 | 3 | 59 |
| Wk 13 2025 | DAL | 261 | 4 | 0 | 30 |
| Wk 12 2025 | IND | 352 | 0 | 1 | 30 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.