ATL · QB · NFL · next: TB, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | under 249.5 | 64% | 62¢ | 62% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 199.5 | 71% | 70¢ | 70% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 58% | 61¢ | 61% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 74% | 80¢ | 79% | Skip |
| Pass Att | over 23.5 | 76% | — | — | No price |
| Completions | over 17.5 | 63% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Michael Penix Jr. in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | SF | 213 | 3 | 0 | -1 |
| Wk 6 2026 | CHI | 225 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Wk 5 2026 | BAL | 240 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Wk 4 2026 | NO | 223 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Wk 3 2026 | GB | 256 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
| Wk 11 2025 | CAR | 175 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Wk 10 2025 | IND | 177 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Wk 9 2025 | NE | 221 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| Wk 7 2025 | SF | 241 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Wk 6 2025 | BUF | 250 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.