LA · QB · NFL · next: LAC, Sun Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | over 1.5 | 64% | 59¢ | 60% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 249.5 | 56% | 51¢ | 52% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 3.5 | 95% | 93¢ | 93% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 274.5 | 54% | 66¢ | 64% | Skip |
| Pass Att | over 27.5 | 76% | — | — | No price |
| Completions | under 23.5 | 59% | — | — | No price |
| Pass Att | under 35.5 | 56% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Matthew Stafford in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | LV | 195 | 3 | 1 | -3 |
| Wk 6 2026 | ARI | 222 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 5 2026 | BUF | 383 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 4 2026 | PHI | 317 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| Wk 3 2026 | DEN | 390 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| Wk 2 2026 | NYG | 327 | 4 | 1 | -1 |
| Wk 1 2026 | SF | 155 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Wk 21 2025 | SEA | 374 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| Wk 20 2025 | CHI | 258 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Wk 19 2025 | CAR | 304 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.