MIA · QB · NFL · next: NE, Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | under 149.5 | 52% | 31¢ | 34% | Value |
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 88% | 79¢ | 80% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | under 39.5 | 61% | 63¢ | 63% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | over 29.5 | 51% | 58¢ | 57% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | over 124.5 | 57% | 86¢ | 82% | Skip |
| Completions | under 13.5 | 61% | — | — | No price |
| Pass Att | under 19.5 | 55% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Malik Willis in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | NYJ | 208 | 2 | 0 | 37 |
| Wk 5 2026 | CIN | 137 | 1 | 2 | 74 |
| Wk 4 2026 | MIN | 85 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Wk 3 2026 | KC | 210 | 0 | 1 | 56 |
| Wk 2 2026 | SF | 197 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Wk 1 2026 | LV | 220 | 0 | 1 | 39 |
| Wk 17 2025 | BAL | 288 | 1 | 0 | 60 |
| Wk 16 2025 | CHI | 121 | 1 | 0 | 44 |
| Wk 12 2025 | MIN | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Wk 11 2025 | NYG | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.