CHI · WR · NFL · next: SEA, Mon Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rec Yds | under 39.5 | 52% | 38¢ | 40% | Fair |
| Rec Yds | over 19.5 | 76% | 89¢ | 87% | Skip |
| Receptions | over 2.5 | 67% | — | — | No price |
| Receptions | under 3.5 | 58% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Luther Burden III in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Rec Yds | Receptions | Targets | Rec TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | NE | 130 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Wk 6 2026 | ATL | 95 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Wk 5 2026 | GB | 47 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Wk 4 2026 | NYJ | 63 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Wk 3 2026 | PHI | 61 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
| Wk 2 2026 | MIN | 32 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Wk 1 2026 | CAR | 63 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Wk 20 2025 | LA | 24 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Wk 19 2025 | GB | 42 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Wk 18 2025 | DET | 35 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.