MIN · QB · NFL · next: DET, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completions | over 21.5 | 66% | 40¢ | 44% | Value |
| Pass Att | over 31.5 | 68% | 52¢ | 54% | Value |
| Rush Yds | over 24.5 | 56% | 49¢ | 50% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 224.5 | 58% | 51¢ | 52% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 58% | 59¢ | 59% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | under 29.5 | 54% | 65¢ | 63% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | under 274.5 | 67% | 79¢ | 77% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Kyler Murray in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | IND | 150 | 1 | 0 | 39 |
| Wk 5 2026 | NO | 229 | 1 | 0 | 51 |
| Wk 4 2026 | MIA | 247 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Wk 3 2026 | TB | 168 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Wk 1 2026 | GB | 18 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| Wk 5 2025 | TEN | 220 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Wk 4 2025 | SEA | 200 | 2 | 2 | 41 |
| Wk 3 2025 | SF | 159 | 1 | 0 | 37 |
| Wk 2 2025 | CAR | 220 | 1 | 1 | 32 |
| Wk 1 2025 | NO | 163 | 2 | 0 | 38 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.