LV · QB · NFL · next: NYJ, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | over 1.5 | 60% | 51¢ | 52% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 249.5 | 60% | 59¢ | 59% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 224.5 | 52% | 60¢ | 59% | Skip |
| Pass TDs | under 3.5 | 86% | 95¢ | 94% | Skip |
| Pass Att | under 31.5 | 50% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Kirk Cousins in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | LA | 295 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Wk 6 2026 | BUF | 313 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 5 2026 | NE | 243 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 4 2026 | KC | 365 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 3 2026 | NO | 248 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Wk 2 2026 | LAC | 253 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Wk 1 2026 | MIA | 160 | 3 | 2 | -6 |
| Wk 18 2025 | NO | 180 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 17 2025 | LA | 126 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Wk 16 2025 | ARI | 197 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.