LAC · QB · NFL · next: LA, Sun Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Att | under 31.5 | 74% | 59¢ | 61% | Fair |
| Completions | under 19.5 | 68% | 56¢ | 58% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 199.5 | 59% | 48¢ | 50% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | over 24.5 | 56% | 50¢ | 51% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 73% | 67¢ | 68% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 77% | 73¢ | 74% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | under 29.5 | 54% | 64¢ | 62% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | over 174.5 | 59% | 70¢ | 68% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 2026 | KC | 204 | 0 | 1 | 26 |
| Wk 5 2026 | DEN | 121 | 1 | 1 | 54 |
| Wk 4 2026 | SEA | 189 | 1 | 2 | 40 |
| Wk 3 2026 | BUF | 226 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Wk 2 2026 | LV | 192 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Wk 1 2026 | ARI | 209 | 1 | 1 | 29 |
| Wk 19 2025 | NE | 159 | 0 | 0 | 57 |
| Wk 17 2025 | HOU | 236 | 1 | 1 | 37 |
| Wk 16 2025 | DAL | 300 | 2 | 0 | 42 |
| Wk 15 2025 | KC | 210 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.