BUF · QB · NFL · next: BAL, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | over 249.5 | 56% | 51¢ | 52% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 2.5 | 81% | 82¢ | 82% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | under 79.5 | 90% | 92¢ | 92% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 349.5 | 92% | 94¢ | 94% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 76% | 89¢ | 87% | Skip |
| Completions | over 21.5 | 53% | — | — | No price |
| Pass Att | over 31.5 | 51% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Josh Allen in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 2026 | LV | 255 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Wk 5 2026 | LA | 210 | 1 | 1 | 121 |
| Wk 4 2026 | NE | 253 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Wk 3 2026 | LAC | 204 | 0 | 2 | 22 |
| Wk 2 2026 | DET | 248 | 3 | 0 | 69 |
| Wk 1 2026 | HOU | 334 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| Wk 20 2025 | DEN | 283 | 3 | 2 | 66 |
| Wk 19 2025 | JAX | 273 | 1 | 0 | 33 |
| Wk 17 2025 | PHI | 262 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Wk 16 2025 | CLE | 130 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.