CIN · QB · NFL · next: TEN, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completions | over 25.5 | 62% | 48¢ | 50% | Fair |
| Pass Att | over 35.5 | 63% | 51¢ | 53% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 274.5 | 58% | 52¢ | 53% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 1.5 | 69% | 73¢ | 72% | Skip |
| Pass TDs | under 2.5 | 53% | 61¢ | 60% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | under 299.5 | 54% | 68¢ | 66% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Joe Burrow in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | BAL | 292 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| Wk 5 2026 | MIA | 190 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| Wk 4 2026 | JAX | 428 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Wk 3 2026 | PIT | 282 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| Wk 2 2026 | HOU | 207 | 2 | 0 | -1 |
| Wk 1 2026 | TB | 254 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Wk 18 2025 | CLE | 236 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| Wk 17 2025 | ARI | 305 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Wk 16 2025 | MIA | 309 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| Wk 15 2025 | BAL | 225 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.