PIT · RB · NFL · next: CLE, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rec Yds | under 29.5 | 66% | 61¢ | 62% | Fair |
| Receptions | under 2.5 | 50% | 45¢ | 46% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | over 59.5 | 60% | 58¢ | 58% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | under 69.5 | 52% | 57¢ | 56% | Skip |
| Rec Yds | over 9.5 | 73% | 79¢ | 78% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Rush Yds | Carries | Receptions | Rec Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | NO | 101 | 18 | 3 | 36 |
| Wk 6 2026 | TB | 50 | 14 | 2 | 28 |
| Wk 5 2026 | IND | 101 | 15 | 6 | 87 |
| Wk 4 2026 | CLE | 93 | 17 | 3 | 33 |
| Wk 3 2026 | CIN | 127 | 17 | 3 | 49 |
| Wk 2 2026 | NE | 43 | 11 | 2 | 34 |
| Wk 1 2026 | ATL | 46 | 10 | 5 | 27 |
| Wk 19 2025 | HOU | 43 | 12 | 1 | 4 |
| Wk 18 2025 | BAL | 66 | 14 | 5 | 33 |
| Wk 17 2025 | CLE | 64 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.