WAS · QB · NFL · next: PHI, Sun Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush Yds | over 39.5 | 55% | 46¢ | 47% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 199.5 | 58% | 52¢ | 53% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 59% | 59¢ | 59% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 72% | 81¢ | 80% | Skip |
| Rush Yds | under 49.5 | 59% | 73¢ | 71% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | under 224.5 | 53% | 68¢ | 66% | Skip |
| Pass Att | over 27.5 | 60% | — | — | No price |
| Pass Att | under 31.5 | 53% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 2026 | SF | 300 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| Wk 5 2026 | NYG | 199 | 0 | 0 | 103 |
| Wk 2 2026 | DAL | 96 | 1 | 0 | 69 |
| Wk 1 2026 | PHI | 164 | 2 | 0 | 31 |
| Wk 14 2025 | MIN | 78 | 0 | 1 | 16 |
| Wk 9 2025 | SEA | 153 | 0 | 1 | 51 |
| Wk 7 2025 | DAL | 156 | 1 | 0 | 35 |
| Wk 6 2025 | CHI | 211 | 3 | 1 | 52 |
| Wk 5 2025 | LAC | 231 | 1 | 0 | 39 |
| Wk 2 2025 | GB | 200 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.