DET · QB · NFL · next: MIN, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 64% | 47¢ | 50% | Value |
| Pass Yds | under 249.5 | 64% | 50¢ | 52% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 86% | 88¢ | 88% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 224.5 | 55% | 71¢ | 69% | Skip |
| Completions | under 21.5 | 70% | — | — | No price |
| Pass Att | under 31.5 | 68% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Jared Goff in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | GB | 303 | 2 | 0 | -1 |
| Wk 5 2026 | ARI | 271 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Wk 4 2026 | CAR | 412 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 3 2026 | NYJ | 269 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Wk 2 2026 | BUF | 327 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| Wk 1 2026 | NO | 206 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Wk 18 2025 | CHI | 331 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 17 2025 | MIN | 197 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Wk 16 2025 | PIT | 364 | 3 | 0 | -1 |
| Wk 15 2025 | LA | 338 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.