DET · RB · NFL · next: MIN, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rec Yds | under 29.5 | 55% | 45¢ | 46% | Fair |
| Receptions | under 4.5 | 63% | 56¢ | 57% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | under 79.5 | 52% | 46¢ | 47% | Fair |
| Receptions | over 3.5 | 58% | 65¢ | 64% | Skip |
| Rec Yds | over 19.5 | 66% | 76¢ | 75% | Skip |
| Rush Yds | over 69.5 | 55% | 68¢ | 66% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Rush Yds | Carries | Receptions | Rec Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | GB | 116 | 29 | 5 | 27 |
| Wk 5 2026 | ARI | 151 | 25 | 5 | 56 |
| Wk 4 2026 | CAR | 46 | 15 | 4 | 31 |
| Wk 3 2026 | NYJ | 99 | 20 | 7 | 65 |
| Wk 2 2026 | BUF | 52 | 16 | 6 | 61 |
| Wk 1 2026 | NO | 156 | 29 | 5 | 30 |
| Wk 18 2025 | CHI | 80 | 19 | 3 | 33 |
| Wk 17 2025 | MIN | 41 | 17 | 2 | 23 |
| Wk 16 2025 | PIT | 2 | 7 | 10 | 66 |
| Wk 15 2025 | LA | 38 | 13 | 4 | 20 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.