ARI · QB · NFL · next: DAL, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completions | over 23.5 | 64% | 53¢ | 55% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 249.5 | 57% | 57¢ | 57% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 1.5 | 60% | 60¢ | 60% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 3.5 | 91% | 92¢ | 92% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 299.5 | 66% | 76¢ | 74% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | DEN | 272 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| Wk 6 2026 | LA | 218 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Wk 5 2026 | DET | 292 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| Wk 4 2026 | NYG | 166 | 2 | 3 | 18 |
| Wk 3 2026 | SF | 280 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Wk 2 2026 | SEA | 95 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Wk 1 2026 | LAC | 277 | 1 | 0 | 14 |
| Wk 18 2025 | LA | 243 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
| Wk 17 2025 | CIN | 212 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 16 2025 | ATL | 203 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.