NYJ · QB · NFL · next: LV, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completions | over 19.5 | 59% | 55¢ | 56% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 199.5 | 62% | 66¢ | 65% | Skip |
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 51% | 55¢ | 54% | Skip |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 79% | 83¢ | 82% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | under 249.5 | 59% | 69¢ | 68% | Skip |
| Pass Att | over 23.5 | 77% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Geno Smith in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | MIA | 287 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 6 2026 | NE | 252 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Wk 5 2026 | CLE | 182 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Wk 4 2026 | CHI | 119 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 3 2026 | DET | 321 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| Wk 2 2026 | GB | 247 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
| Wk 1 2026 | TEN | 215 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Wk 17 2025 | NYG | 176 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Wk 16 2025 | HOU | 201 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 14 2025 | DEN | 116 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.