NE · QB · NFL · next: MIA, Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | over 249.5 | 55% | 44¢ | 46% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 1.5 | 65% | 56¢ | 57% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | over 24.5 | 57% | 50¢ | 51% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | under 29.5 | 56% | 65¢ | 64% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | under 274.5 | 57% | 73¢ | 71% | Skip |
| Pass TDs | under 3.5 | 71% | 94¢ | 91% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Drake Maye in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | CHI | 321 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| Wk 6 2026 | NYJ | 235 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| Wk 5 2026 | LV | 374 | 4 | 0 | 25 |
| Wk 4 2026 | BUF | 269 | 3 | 1 | 54 |
| Wk 3 2026 | JAX | 199 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| Wk 2 2026 | PIT | 208 | 0 | 1 | 17 |
| Wk 1 2026 | SEA | 178 | 1 | 3 | 47 |
| Wk 22 2025 | SEA | 295 | 2 | 2 | 37 |
| Wk 21 2025 | DEN | 86 | 0 | 0 | 65 |
| Wk 20 2025 | HOU | 179 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.