PIT · WR · NFL · next: CLE, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rec Yds | under 49.5 | 60% | 47¢ | 49% | Fair |
| Receptions | under 3.5 | 53% | 40¢ | 42% | Fair |
| Rec Yds | over 29.5 | 66% | 78¢ | 76% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open DK Metcalf in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Rec Yds | Receptions | Targets | Rec TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | NO | 56 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Wk 6 2026 | TB | 93 | 11 | 15 | 0 |
| Wk 5 2026 | IND | 12 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Wk 4 2026 | CLE | 115 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Wk 3 2026 | CIN | 31 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Wk 2 2026 | NE | 27 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Wk 1 2026 | ATL | 40 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Wk 19 2025 | HOU | 42 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Wk 16 2025 | DET | 42 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Wk 15 2025 | MIA | 55 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.