CLE · QB · NFL · next: PIT, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 79% | 73¢ | 74% | Fair |
| Pass Att | over 31.5 | 55% | 49¢ | 50% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | under 29.5 | 65% | 60¢ | 61% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | over 19.5 | 68% | 65¢ | 65% | Fair |
| Completions | over 19.5 | 51% | 53¢ | 53% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 59% | 67¢ | 66% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | over 174.5 | 62% | 73¢ | 71% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | TEN | 308 | 0 | 1 | 19 |
| Wk 6 2026 | BAL | 164 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
| Wk 5 2026 | NYJ | 155 | 1 | 0 | 40 |
| Wk 4 2026 | PIT | 268 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| Wk 3 2026 | CAR | 144 | 2 | 0 | 45 |
| Wk 2 2026 | TB | 238 | 2 | 0 | 22 |
| Wk 1 2026 | JAX | 205 | 1 | 1 | 38 |
| Wk 7 2024 | CIN | 128 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 6 2024 | PHI | 168 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Wk 5 2024 | WAS | 125 | 1 | 0 | 14 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.