IND · QB · NFL · next: JAX, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | over 224.5 | 53% | 31¢ | 34% | Value |
| Completions | over 19.5 | 67% | 52¢ | 54% | Fair |
| Pass Att | over 31.5 | 61% | 53¢ | 54% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 2.5 | 96% | 95¢ | 95% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 61% | 65¢ | 64% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | under 249.5 | 59% | 82¢ | 79% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Daniel Jones in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | MIN | 108 | 0 | 1 | 13 |
| Wk 6 2026 | TEN | 269 | 1 | 2 | 30 |
| Wk 5 2026 | PIT | 267 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Wk 4 2026 | WAS | 143 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Wk 3 2026 | HOU | 235 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Wk 2 2026 | KC | 210 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Wk 1 2026 | BAL | 166 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Wk 14 2025 | JAX | 60 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Wk 13 2025 | HOU | 201 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Wk 12 2025 | KC | 181 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.