DAL · QB · NFL · next: ARI, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Att | over 35.5 | 68% | 47¢ | 50% | Value |
| Completions | over 23.5 | 66% | 50¢ | 52% | Value |
| Pass Yds | over 274.5 | 62% | 51¢ | 53% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 2.5 | 57% | 58¢ | 58% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 1.5 | 65% | 75¢ | 73% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | under 324.5 | 62% | 77¢ | 75% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | PHI | 212 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| Wk 6 2026 | GB | 258 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Wk 5 2026 | TB | 316 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Wk 4 2026 | HOU | 335 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Wk 3 2026 | BAL | 276 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| Wk 2 2026 | WAS | 279 | 4 | 0 | 26 |
| Wk 1 2026 | NYG | 175 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| Wk 18 2025 | NYG | 70 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Wk 17 2025 | WAS | 307 | 2 | 0 | 24 |
| Wk 16 2025 | LAC | 244 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.