TEN · QB · NFL · next: CIN, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | under 2.5 | 98% | 94¢ | 95% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 199.5 | 53% | 55¢ | 55% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 174.5 | 62% | 64¢ | 64% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 59% | 67¢ | 66% | Skip |
| Pass Att | over 27.5 | 74% | — | — | No price |
| Pass Att | under 35.5 | 54% | — | — | No price |
| Completions | over 21.5 | 50% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | CLE | 181 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Wk 6 2026 | IND | 102 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Wk 5 2026 | HOU | 170 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Wk 4 2026 | BAL | 222 | 1 | 1 | 27 |
| Wk 3 2026 | NYG | 181 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Wk 2 2026 | PHI | 183 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Wk 1 2026 | NYJ | 140 | 1 | 0 | 21 |
| Wk 18 2025 | JAX | 52 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Wk 17 2025 | NO | 251 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| Wk 16 2025 | KC | 228 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.