CHI · QB · NFL · next: SEA, Mon Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completions | under 19.5 | 71% | 59¢ | 61% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 224.5 | 56% | 52¢ | 53% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | under 2.5 | 94% | 90¢ | 91% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 81% | 80¢ | 80% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | over 19.5 | 52% | 54¢ | 54% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 124.5 | 90% | — | — | No price |
| Rush Yds | under 34.5 | 75% | — | — | No price |
| Pass Att | under 31.5 | 70% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Caleb Williams in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | NE | 308 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| Wk 6 2026 | ATL | 305 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Wk 2 2026 | MIN | 138 | 0 | 1 | 42 |
| Wk 1 2026 | CAR | 269 | 2 | 0 | 65 |
| Wk 20 2025 | LA | 257 | 2 | 3 | 40 |
| Wk 19 2025 | GB | 361 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| Wk 18 2025 | DET | 212 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Wk 17 2025 | SF | 330 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| Wk 16 2025 | GB | 250 | 2 | 0 | 30 |
| Wk 15 2025 | CLE | 242 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.