LV · TE · NFL · next: NYJ, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rec Yds | under 69.5 | 57% | 48¢ | 49% | Fair |
| Receptions | under 7.5 | 72% | 75¢ | 75% | Fair |
| Receptions | over 5.5 | 52% | 57¢ | 56% | Skip |
| Rec Yds | over 59.5 | 53% | 63¢ | 62% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Rec Yds | Receptions | Targets | Rec TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | LA | 73 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Wk 6 2026 | BUF | 70 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Wk 5 2026 | NE | 110 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
| Wk 4 2026 | KC | 86 | 6 | 11 | 1 |
| Wk 3 2026 | NO | 116 | 10 | 13 | 1 |
| Wk 16 2025 | HOU | 33 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Wk 15 2025 | PHI | 28 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Wk 14 2025 | DEN | 46 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Wk 13 2025 | LAC | 63 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Wk 12 2025 | CLE | 55 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.