DEN · QB · NFL · next: KC, Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 81% | 69¢ | 71% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 199.5 | 56% | 48¢ | 49% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | under 14.5 | 53% | 47¢ | 48% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 66% | 71¢ | 70% | Skip |
| Rush Yds | over 9.5 | 60% | 70¢ | 68% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | over 174.5 | 56% | 71¢ | 69% | Skip |
| Completions | under 21.5 | 65% | — | — | No price |
| Pass Att | over 27.5 | 62% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | ARI | 222 | 1 | 0 | 73 |
| Wk 6 2026 | SEA | 107 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Wk 5 2026 | LAC | 123 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| Wk 4 2026 | SF | 214 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| Wk 3 2026 | LA | 186 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| Wk 2 2026 | JAX | 288 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Wk 1 2026 | KC | 131 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Wk 20 2025 | BUF | 279 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| Wk 18 2025 | LAC | 141 | 0 | 0 | 49 |
| Wk 17 2025 | KC | 182 | 1 | 1 | 42 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.