TB · QB · NFL · next: ATL, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 64% | 56¢ | 57% | Fair |
| Completions | under 19.5 | 52% | 50¢ | 50% | Fair |
| Pass TDs | over 0.5 | 83% | 82¢ | 82% | Fair |
| Rush Yds | over 14.5 | 57% | 59¢ | 59% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | under 249.5 | 68% | 72¢ | 71% | Skip |
| Rush Yds | under 19.5 | 52% | 59¢ | 58% | Skip |
| Pass Yds | over 199.5 | 55% | 63¢ | 62% | Skip |
| Completions | over 17.5 | 60% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | CAR | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Wk 3 2026 | MIN | 217 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Wk 2 2026 | CLE | 182 | 1 | 1 | 29 |
| Wk 1 2026 | CIN | 216 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| Wk 18 2025 | CAR | 203 | 1 | 1 | 31 |
| Wk 17 2025 | MIA | 346 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| Wk 16 2025 | CAR | 145 | 1 | 1 | 49 |
| Wk 15 2025 | ATL | 277 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Wk 14 2025 | NO | 122 | 1 | 1 | 42 |
| Wk 13 2025 | ARI | 194 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.