LV · RB · NFL · next: NYJ, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush Yds | under 59.5 | 72% | 66¢ | 67% | Fair |
| Receptions | under 3.5 | 54% | 50¢ | 51% | Fair |
| Rec Yds | under 39.5 | 65% | 71¢ | 70% | Skip |
| Rec Yds | over 19.5 | 60% | 67¢ | 66% | Skip |
| Receptions | over 2.5 | 65% | 73¢ | 72% | Skip |
| Rush Yds | over 39.5 | 55% | 66¢ | 64% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Rush Yds | Carries | Receptions | Rec Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | LA | 15 | 8 | 8 | 61 |
| Wk 6 2026 | BUF | 22 | 10 | 4 | 36 |
| Wk 5 2026 | NE | 27 | 10 | 3 | 50 |
| Wk 4 2026 | KC | 58 | 15 | 6 | 68 |
| Wk 3 2026 | NO | 56 | 19 | 3 | 37 |
| Wk 2 2026 | LAC | 48 | 21 | 4 | 15 |
| Wk 1 2026 | MIA | 102 | 23 | 6 | 45 |
| Wk 18 2025 | KC | 87 | 26 | 3 | 7 |
| Wk 17 2025 | NYG | 60 | 16 | 2 | 13 |
| Wk 16 2025 | HOU | 128 | 24 | 1 | 60 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.