PIT · QB · NFL · next: CLE, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | under 224.5 | 58% | 56¢ | 56% | Fair |
| Pass Yds | over 199.5 | 59% | 63¢ | 62% | Skip |
| Pass TDs | under 1.5 | 52% | 62¢ | 61% | Skip |
| Completions | over 17.5 | 71% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | INTs | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 2026 | NO | 212 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Wk 6 2026 | TB | 253 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Wk 5 2026 | IND | 235 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Wk 4 2026 | CLE | 299 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Wk 3 2026 | CIN | 292 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| Wk 2 2026 | NE | 187 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Wk 1 2026 | ATL | 221 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Wk 19 2025 | HOU | 146 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 18 2025 | BAL | 294 | 1 | 0 | 20 |
| Wk 17 2025 | CLE | 168 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.