TOR · F · NBA · next: ORL, Fri Oct 30, 7:30 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Pointers | under 1.5 | 82% | 66¢ | 68% | Value |
| Points | under 24.5 | 73% | 67¢ | 68% | Fair |
| Steals | under 1.5 | 54% | 53¢ | 53% | Fair |
| Blocks | under 1.5 | 62% | 63¢ | 63% | Fair |
| Assists | over 5.5 | 54% | 60¢ | 59% | Skip |
| Blocks | over 0.5 | 66% | 76¢ | 75% | Skip |
| Steals | over 0.5 | 71% | 83¢ | 81% | Skip |
| Assists | under 7.5 | 67% | 79¢ | 77% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | ORL | 28 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 31 |
| Oct 25 | MIN | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 28 |
| Oct 23 | WSH | 28 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 37 |
| Oct 21 | CHI | 23 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 26 |
| May 3 | CLE | 24 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 37 |
| May 1 | CLE | 25 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 48 |
| Apr 29 | CLE | 17 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| Apr 26 | CLE | 23 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 42 |
| Apr 24 | CLE | 33 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 35 |
| Apr 20 | CLE | 26 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 40 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.