DEN · C · NBA · next: PHX, Fri Oct 30, 10:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Pointers | under 1.5 | 64% | 47¢ | 50% | Value |
| Rebounds | over 13.5 | 51% | 38¢ | 40% | Fair |
| Assists | over 9.5 | 58% | 47¢ | 49% | Fair |
| Steals | under 1.5 | 69% | 64¢ | 65% | Fair |
| Points | over 24.5 | 54% | 55¢ | 55% | Fair |
| Points | under 29.5 | 72% | 75¢ | 75% | Fair |
| 3-Pointers | over 0.5 | 70% | 84¢ | 82% | Skip |
| Assists | under 11.5 | 65% | 81¢ | 79% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | NO | 21 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| Oct 27 | GS | 19 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 35 |
| Oct 25 | NO | 35 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 44 |
| Oct 23 | OKC | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 35 |
| May 1 | MIN | 28 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| Apr 28 | MIN | 27 | 12 | 16 | 1 | 38 |
| Apr 26 | MIN | 24 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 41 |
| Apr 24 | MIN | 27 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Apr 21 | MIN | 24 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 40 |
| Apr 18 | MIN | 25 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 40 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.