WSH · F · NBA · next: CHA, Fri Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | over 14.5 | 58% | 42¢ | 44% | Value |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | over 24.5 | 51% | 37¢ | 39% | Fair |
| Assists | over 3.5 | 55% | 50¢ | 51% | Fair |
| 3-Pointers | over 1.5 | 52% | 49¢ | 49% | Fair |
| Blocks | over 0.5 | 60% | 63¢ | 63% | Skip |
| Steals | under 2.5 | 90% | 96¢ | 95% | Skip |
| Rebounds | under 5.5 | 70% | 77¢ | 76% | Skip |
| Rebounds | over 3.5 | 56% | 68¢ | 66% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | CLE | 8 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 38 |
| Oct 26 | CHA | 20 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| Oct 25 | CHI | 22 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 36 |
| Oct 23 | TOR | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| Oct 21 | MIL | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| Mar 3 | HOU | 16 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 22 |
| Mar 1 | TOR | 14 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| Feb 25 | ATL | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| Feb 22 | CHA | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
| Feb 20 | IND | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.