POR · G · NBA · next: SAC, Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pts+Reb+Ast | over 24.5 | 50% | 32¢ | 35% | Value |
| Points | over 14.5 | 52% | 39¢ | 41% | Fair |
| 3-Pointers | over 2.5 | 50% | 41¢ | 42% | Fair |
| Steals | under 1.5 | 77% | 72¢ | 73% | Fair |
| Rebounds | over 3.5 | 58% | 55¢ | 55% | Fair |
| Assists | over 3.5 | 61% | 60¢ | 60% | Fair |
| Steals | over 0.5 | 63% | 67¢ | 66% | Skip |
| Rebounds | under 5.5 | 73% | 80¢ | 79% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Nov 13, 11:08 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Jrue Holiday in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | OKC | 19 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 30 |
| Nov 11 | OKC | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
| Nov 8 | SA | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 |
| Nov 7 | LAL | 12 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
| Nov 5 | PHX | 15 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 28 |
| Nov 3 | DEN | 17 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 31 |
| Oct 31 | UTAH | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22 |
| Oct 30 | MEM | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| Oct 28 | LAL | 22 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 30 |
| Oct 24 | SAC | 12 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 26 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.