BOS · F · NBA · next: ORL, Sun Nov 1, 3:30 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Pointers | under 2.5 | 56% | 49¢ | 50% | Fair |
| Rebounds | over 7.5 | 61% | 58¢ | 59% | Fair |
| 3-Pointers | over 1.5 | 76% | 75¢ | 75% | Fair |
| Points | over 19.5 | 77% | 78¢ | 78% | Fair |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | under 44.5 | 62% | 66¢ | 65% | Skip |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | over 39.5 | 58% | 62¢ | 61% | Skip |
| Assists | under 7.5 | 59% | 66¢ | 65% | Skip |
| Steals | under 2.5 | 82% | 92¢ | 91% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Nov 1, 11:07 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Jayson Tatum in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | CHI | 26 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 35 |
| Oct 27 | BKN | 40 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 42 |
| Oct 26 | CHI | 23 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 28 |
| Oct 23 | NY | 36 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 37 |
| Oct 20 | DET | 13 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 38 |
| May 1 | PHI | 17 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 29 |
| Apr 28 | PHI | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 41 |
| Apr 26 | PHI | 30 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 35 |
| Apr 24 | PHI | 25 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 42 |
| Apr 21 | PHI | 19 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 39 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.