MEM · F · NBA · next: SAC, Sat Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | over 14.5 | 51% | 35¢ | 38% | Value |
| 3-Pointers | over 1.5 | 70% | 57¢ | 60% | Fair |
| Rebounds | under 3.5 | 57% | 63¢ | 62% | Skip |
| 3-Pointers | under 2.5 | 55% | 80¢ | 75% | Skip |
| Points | under 19.5 | 76% | — | — | No price |
| Steals | under 1.5 | 67% | — | — | No price |
| Assists | over 0.5 | 66% | — | — | No price |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | over 16.5 | 65% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 31, 11:05 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (20% model, 80% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | POR | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 |
| Oct 27 | UTAH | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 30 |
| Oct 26 | SAC | 16 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 33 |
| Oct 24 | GS | 17 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| Oct 22 | UTAH | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 28 |
| Mar 23 | ATL | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| Mar 21 | BOS | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Mar 21 | CHA | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| Mar 19 | DEN | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 25 |
| Mar 17 | CHI | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 23 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.