MIA · F · NBA · next: IND, Fri Oct 30, 8:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Pointers | under 0.5 | 70% | 52¢ | 55% | Value |
| Assists | under 5.5 | 60% | 45¢ | 47% | Fair |
| Points | under 34.5 | 76% | 68¢ | 69% | Fair |
| Rebounds | under 11.5 | 55% | 49¢ | 50% | Fair |
| Steals | over 0.5 | 64% | 67¢ | 67% | Skip |
| Steals | under 2.5 | 92% | 96¢ | 95% | Skip |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | over 44.5 | 56% | 72¢ | 70% | Skip |
| Rebounds | over 9.5 | 58% | 76¢ | 73% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | ATL | 24 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 31 |
| Oct 26 | DAL | 29 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 39 |
| Oct 24 | CHA | 14 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 25 |
| Oct 24 | DET | 36 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 33 |
| Oct 21 | MIN | 35 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 30 |
| Mar 15 | IND | 31 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 23 |
| Mar 12 | MIA | 31 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 |
| Mar 11 | PHX | 22 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 32 |
| Mar 8 | UTAH | 27 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 27 |
| Mar 5 | ATL | 24 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 26 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.