ORL · F · NBA · next: BOS, Sun Nov 1, 3:30 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pts+Reb+Ast | under 34.5 | 69% | 51¢ | 54% | Value |
| Points | under 24.5 | 77% | 70¢ | 71% | Fair |
| 3-Pointers | under 1.5 | 64% | 57¢ | 58% | Fair |
| Rebounds | under 7.5 | 80% | 75¢ | 76% | Fair |
| Steals | under 1.5 | 72% | 72¢ | 72% | Fair |
| Steals | over 0.5 | 61% | 68¢ | 67% | Skip |
| Rebounds | over 5.5 | 50% | 58¢ | 57% | Skip |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | over 29.5 | 51% | 72¢ | 69% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Nov 1, 11:07 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
Open Franz Wagner in the full model →
| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | TOR | 26 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 39 |
| Oct 28 | TOR | 15 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 34 |
| Oct 25 | NY | 23 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 37 |
| Oct 23 | MIN | 18 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 33 |
| Oct 21 | ATL | 22 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 29 |
| Apr 28 | DET | 19 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| Apr 25 | DET | 17 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 34 |
| Apr 22 | DET | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 32 |
| Apr 19 | DET | 19 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 32 |
| Apr 17 | CHA | 18 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 25 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.