ORL · G · NBA · next: BOS, Sun Nov 1, 3:30 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assists | under 3.5 | 64% | 47¢ | 50% | Value |
| Points | under 19.5 | 54% | 51¢ | 52% | Fair |
| 3-Pointers | over 2.5 | 56% | 56¢ | 56% | Fair |
| Rebounds | over 3.5 | 62% | 62¢ | 62% | Fair |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | under 29.5 | 63% | 65¢ | 65% | Fair |
| Steals | over 0.5 | 67% | 71¢ | 70% | Skip |
| 3-Pointers | under 3.5 | 61% | 68¢ | 67% | Skip |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | over 24.5 | 58% | 66¢ | 65% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Nov 1, 11:07 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | TOR | 28 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| Oct 28 | TOR | 13 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 34 |
| Oct 25 | NY | 22 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 35 |
| Oct 23 | MIN | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| Oct 21 | ATL | 18 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 33 |
| May 3 | DET | 16 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 38 |
| May 1 | DET | 17 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 38 |
| Apr 29 | DET | 18 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 34 |
| Apr 28 | DET | 22 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 37 |
| Apr 25 | DET | 25 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 38 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.