MIA · G · NBA · next: IND, Fri Oct 30, 8:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebounds | over 1.5 | 68% | 61¢ | 62% | Fair |
| 3-Pointers | over 1.5 | 51% | 48¢ | 48% | Fair |
| Points | over 9.5 | 72% | 72¢ | 72% | Fair |
| Assists | under 9.5 | 80% | 90¢ | 88% | Skip |
| Assists | over 5.5 | 58% | 69¢ | 67% | Skip |
| Rebounds | under 3.5 | 75% | 91¢ | 89% | Skip |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | under 24.5 | 58% | 81¢ | 78% | Skip |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | over 22.5 | 52% | — | — | No price |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | ATL | 10 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| Oct 26 | DAL | 21 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Oct 24 | CHA | 22 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
| Oct 24 | DET | 18 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 33 |
| Oct 21 | MIN | 11 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 33 |
| Apr 14 | CHA | 28 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 48 |
| Apr 12 | ATL | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 26 |
| Apr 9 | TOR | 15 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 37 |
| Apr 7 | TOR | 9 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 23 |
| Apr 4 | WSH | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 26 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.