MIA · F · NBA · next: IND, Fri Oct 30, 8:00 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assists | over 1.5 | 63% | 58¢ | 59% | Fair |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | over 19.5 | 54% | 52¢ | 52% | Fair |
| Assists | under 3.5 | 83% | 86¢ | 86% | Fair |
| Rebounds | over 3.5 | 54% | 62¢ | 61% | Skip |
| 3-Pointers | over 0.5 | 75% | 87¢ | 85% | Skip |
| 3-Pointers | under 2.5 | 63% | 76¢ | 74% | Skip |
| Rebounds | under 5.5 | 67% | 82¢ | 80% | Skip |
| Points | under 19.5 | 79% | 95¢ | 93% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Oct 30, 11:09 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | ATL | 18 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 29 |
| Oct 26 | DAL | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 34 |
| Oct 24 | CHA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 |
| Oct 24 | DET | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| Oct 21 | MIN | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 27 |
| Apr 14 | CHA | 27 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 42 |
| Apr 12 | ATL | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 26 |
| Apr 10 | WSH | 11 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| Apr 9 | TOR | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| Apr 7 | TOR | 24 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 33 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.