HOU · C · NBA · next: MIN, Wed Nov 4, 8:30 PM ET
| Prop | Line | Model | Price | Fair | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assists | over 5.5 | 62% | 58¢ | 59% | Fair |
| Points | over 19.5 | 56% | 53¢ | 53% | Fair |
| Blocks | over 0.5 | 63% | 61¢ | 61% | Fair |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | over 34.5 | 57% | 56¢ | 56% | Fair |
| Rebounds | under 9.5 | 56% | 66¢ | 65% | Skip |
| Assists | under 7.5 | 64% | 75¢ | 73% | Skip |
| Blocks | under 1.5 | 71% | 82¢ | 80% | Skip |
| Points | under 24.5 | 68% | 83¢ | 81% | Skip |
Prices from Polymarket US as of Nov 4, 11:06 AM ET. Fair is the model blended with the price (15% model, 85% market — the mix that has predicted graded picks best); the market usually knows more than the game logs. Tap a prop for the live price and the full breakdown.
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| Game | Opp | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3-Pointers | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | BOS | 26 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 38 |
| Nov 1 | OKC | 16 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| Oct 27 | ATL | 29 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 37 |
| Oct 25 | ATL | 17 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 33 |
| Oct 24 | SA | 29 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 36 |
| Oct 22 | DAL | 23 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| May 2 | LAL | 17 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 38 |
| Apr 30 | LAL | 14 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 43 |
| Apr 27 | LAL | 19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 33 |
| Apr 25 | LAL | 33 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 47 |
The model weights recent games more, adjusts for the matchup and is calibrated on its own graded record — how it works. Research, not betting advice.